Chronicle of July 2024
Trump's Presidential Prospects
Former President Trump has enjoyed the early lead as people grew weary of Biden's inflationary policies and perceived promotion of degenerate culture. The failed assassination attempt on Trump also significantly boosted his electability. However, the Democratic Party executed a series of strategic maneuvers, positioning Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. What's Trump likelihood of success in this election?
The sudden rise of Ms. Harris
Ms. Harris' political influence surged after receiving endorsements from several prominent Democratic figures. President Biden, who won the primary earlier this year but mysteriously dropped out, endorsed her. Despite securing the Democratic nomination through member votes, Biden withdrew and backed Ms. Harris. Former President Obama, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi NANC 0.00%↑ also voiced their support for her.
Helped by the Democratic Party's strong infrastructure, Ms. Harris can now confidently aim for the presidency. So far, the Democrats have amassed a massive war chest. According to OpenSecrets.org, as of June 20th, Ms. Harris has raised $294 million in donations. Just a day after receiving President Biden's endorsement last week, she raised another $231 million. Moreover, the Democrats enjoy broad support across mainstream and social media, and even search engines, which is invaluable in shaping public opinion. As the incumbent party, the Democrats also have some influence over federal agencies, potentially working to their advantage. Further, President Biden is taking steps to tweak the Supreme Court, attempting to change the condition in favor of Democratic party.
It seems an uphill battle for Mr. Trump to make the U.S. great again. What's his chances?
Media polls
When examining media polls, it's important to consider who initiated the poll, as every media outlet has its own biases. The chart above can serve as a guide. Media outlets such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and MSNBC may lean towards the Left, favoring the Democratic Party. In contrast, Fox News may lean towards the Right, favoring the Republican Party. As the chart shows, most of the media outlets now lean to the Left.
The website 270towin.com provides a nice aggregation of the various media polls.
The table below shows that Trump leads in many national polls, including those conducted by Left-leaning media outlets.
While national polls are useful for gauging overall sentiment, it's crucial to focus on swing state polls. Swing states are those where the electorate is closely divided, and either major party has a chance of winning. A candidate who wins in swing states has a higher chance of winning the national election due to the Electoral College system, where the winner of a state takes all of its electoral votes.
Betting polls
One might argue that betting polls are more unbiased than media polls due to the monetary incentives involved. In betting polls, anyone can participate as long as they place a wager, which encourages participants to predict outcomes as accurately as possible. The financial stakes motivate bettors to base their predictions on careful analysis rather than partisan bias.
According to PredictIt, the betting odds now favor Ms. Harris, especially following the loss of momentum from Trump's failed assassination attempt and President Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse her.
However, betting polls have their own flaws. According to SportsBettingDime.com, 57% of sports betting participants are male, and 70% are white, which may introduce bias in the context of the current election. While this could affect the representativeness of betting polls, it remains a theoretical concern.
Small donor
Another way to assess the winner is through small donor data, which refers to individual donors giving small amounts of money to a candidate. These donations may accurately reflect the willingness of each candidate's voters to support them financially.
According to OpenSecrets.org, as of June 20th, Ms. Harris has raised more than $118 million from small donors, defined as those giving less than $200. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has raised $68 million from small donors.
However, small donor data is not always transparent and can be manipulated. For example, a woman from Annapolis, Maryland, allegedly made over 1,000 donations to ActBlue in 2022, totaling $18,849.77, but she denied doing so.
Trump's prospects
Trump may lead in the polls, but with most media outlets leaning to the left, these polls could be skewed against him. Interestingly, betting data appears to favor Ms. Harris, despite betting polls typically having a favorable bias towards Trump. Nonetheless, it's too early to draw conclusions, especially given the Democrats' control over most media outlets. Public opinion could shift dramatically in the next three months.
There is a not-so-old quote: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."