Chronicle of October 2024
A Clash of Visions for America's Future
As the U.S. stands at a historic crossroads, the contrasting visions of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris present stark choices for the future of the nation — and the world. This decision isn’t merely between two presidential candidates; it’s a choice of values and ways of life: deregulation vs. tighter controls, efficient vs. expansive government, economic freedom vs. centralized planning, equal opportunity vs. equal outcomes, and border security vs. open borders.
This chronicle delves into their core programs, drawing insights from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind report, exploring how each candidate’s agenda could impact our lives, whether in the U.S. or beyond.
Personal Tax
Trump's tax program is broad-based and straightforward. In addition to aiming to make current low personal tax rates permanent, he proposes eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits and tips. The latter has gained attention, leading Harris to adopt a similar tax elimination on tips as well.
Harris, in contrast, uses tax policy to address income inequality, advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy and reduced taxes for low-income earners. While her plan has the admirable goal of reducing the wealth gap, it may lead to unintended consequences, potentially discouraging productivity as individuals aim to lower their taxable income.
Corporate Tax
Beyond aiming to further reduce corporate tax rates, Trump plans to repeal green incentive programs. This includes dismantling financing institutions supporting clean energy initiatives and eliminating subsidies for individuals installing non-fossil-fuel-based electricity systems.
Harris, by contrast, views corporate tax as a means to promote wealth equality, planning to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Her camp also proposes a tax on stock buybacks, possibly premised on the belief that shareholders are always wealthy.
Trade
Trump is committed to his tariff program, viewing it as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing, even if it strains relations with key partners like Mexico or European countries. His approach underscores a focus on economic self-sufficiency, despite potential diplomatic friction.
The Harris camp, meanwhile, appears less interested in tariffs overall. However, her administration has not revoked Trump-era tariffs and has even introduced additional ones, particularly in trade with China.
Inflation
Trump and Harris take sharply different approaches to managing inflation. Trump’s strategy centers on reducing business regulations, aiming to ease burdens on companies and lowering the cost of doing business.
In contrast, Harris focuses on direct price controls and influencing business practices, such as cracking down on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to prevent excessive market power, which she believes contributes to rising prices.
Labor
Trump and Harris take contrasting approaches to labor issues. Trump focuses on bringing jobs back to the U.S. by encouraging companies to reduce offshoring and keep manufacturing capacity onshore. His approach aims to strengthen domestic job opportunities by fostering a competitive U.S. labor market.
Harris, on the other hand, emphasizes raising the minimum wage, a policy intended to improve worker pay but that may also pressure businesses to cut back on hiring. She also supports expanding union power, advocating for legislation like the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would allow unions to collect mandatory fees from all workers benefiting from a union contract, regardless of union membership.
Immigration
Trump takes a strict approach to reducing illegal immigration, emphasizing increased penalties for illegal immigrants, expanded deportation programs, and strengthened border enforcement. His policies aim to deter unauthorized entry and prioritize national security.
In contrast, Harris seeks to address illegal immigration by creating more legal pathways. Her approach includes accelerating processing times for illegal immigrants seeking legal status, in part by allocating more visas, which would allow them to gain lawful residency.
Healthcare
Trump has an extensive, though often underemphasized, program for addressing healthcare issues. One of his primary goals is to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), which he views as federal overreach. In his previous term, his administration successfully eliminated the individual mandate, which required Americans to purchase insurance or face penalties. Trump also aims to expand Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), allowing Americans to save money tax-free for medical expenses and offering more flexibility in healthcare choices.
In contrast, Harris’s program focuses on strengthening the Affordable Care Act, expanding its coverage and protections. She also proposes capping insulin prices and aims to cancel medical debt.
Energy & Environment
Trump’s energy approach centers on deregulation, including repealing green subsidies and relaxing restrictions on oil and gas projects.
Though not highlighted in the Goldman summary, Harris strongly supports green subsidies and advocates for stricter regulations on the oil and gas sectors to promote clean energy.
Security
The foreign policy approaches of Trump and Harris differ sharply. Harris supports providing aid to allied war efforts, including continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine and strong backing of NATO, emphasizing collective defense.
Trump, on the other hand, resists further U.S. aid in foreign conflicts, advocating for NATO allies to increase their own defense spending rather than relying on U.S. contributions. He aims to end U.S. involvement in conflicts like Ukraine, prioritizing domestic interests.
Housing & Fed
Trump and Harris have notably different approaches on issues like housing and the Federal Reserve's independence. Generally, Trump favors deregulation and tax incentives to stimulate the housing market, while Harris advocates for direct subsidies to make housing more accessible.
Trump has also frequently criticized the Fed’s interest rate policies, favoring lower rates to drive growth. However, he is not alone—several past U.S. presidents have also taken issue with Fed policies. For those wondering, no, Trump has not suggested abolishing the Fed.
At this critical moment, Trump and Harris present two contrasting visions: Trump favors deregulation, lower taxes, and national-focused policies, while Harris pushes for more government intervention, social equity, higher taxes on the wealthy, and environmental protections. This choice comes down to a free-market, growth-driven approach versus a socially conscious, equality-focused path, challenging voters to consider both immediate and long-term impacts on American society and its place in the world.